when can you say a war is one is it when your enemy surrenders or when you decimate your rivals legendary military strategist sun tzu says neither war is fought for political goals if those were achieved then yes the war has been won if not it is a failure let's apply that theory to russia's war what was vladimir putin's political goal to keep ukraine out of nato to have less nato on his borders has putin achieved that not yet what's more he could be getting more nato on his borders i'm talking about finland their leaders have agreed to join nato i'll read from the joint statement this is what it says as a member of nato finland would strengthen the entire defense alliance finland must apply for nato membership without delay we hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days this statement came from the prime minister and president so it's official finland will apply for nato membership reports say sweden will do the same now what will that process look like membership can take up to one year until then finland will get observer status all 30 nato allies must agree to admit the new members and this approval must come from their parliament for example joe biden cannot approve it the u.s congress has to approve it logistically this process will take time but in effect it is a done deal the nato chief has already reacted to the announcement he says the membership will be quote unquote smooth and swift what about russia needless to say russia is livid the kremlin is calling it a threat to their security and this map should tell you why finland and russia are neighbors their shared border is more than 300 kilometers long plus look at how close it is to moscow less than 1 000 kilometers if you put a missile near the border moscow is within range and this is precisely what putin was against he invaded ukraine to stop the same thing from happening the question is will he do it again will russia attack finland next well they have done it before in 1939 the soviet union invaded finland they kicked off the notorious winter war but this time russia will hesitate we can think of two reasons why number one russia is already fighting a war opening another front could be could prove to be a disaster and number two finland's army is much stronger than ukraine's they have american weapons in their arsenal plus conscription for all adult males so logically putin should not invade just one problem we said the same thing about ukraine remember that logically putin would not invade well he did so finland and sweden need an insurance policy some deterrence against russia on wednesday uk prime minister boris johnson tried to do that he visited sweden and finland he signed a security agreement with both the countries what does this agreement say that if either countries are tagged britain will help them from the high north uh to the baltics and beyond our armed forces will train operate and exercise together marrying our defence and security capabilities and formalizing a pledge that we will always come to one another's aid will this include boots on the ground boris johnson did not rule it out he said the assistance will depend on what the other side is asking for and it's not just britain the us and germany have also promised military assistance so here's what could happen in the next couple of months russia may not attack finland but they will take on an aggressive posture possibly more drills near the northern borders or even missile deployments as for nato you could see more joint drills with sweden and finland more military transfers reports say america and britain will rotate troops in the nordic where does all of this leave europe on the brink of a wider war just think about the firepower at play one mistake one misunderstanding and this could escalate into a nuclear conflict which makes you wonder what happened to good old diplomacy potent specifically drew a red line for the west no nato at my board as he said but the west is doing exactly that the question the same question was put to finland's president listen to his response when you ask whether whether what they how they see a possible finish joining well if that would be the case that we join well my response would be that you caused this look at the mirror i get that counter argument finland is after all a sovereign nation it can join any military alliance it wants but so is ukraine ukraine too is a sovereign nation seeking nato membership why isn't their process smooth and swift in fact let's forget nato why not a european union membership at least even that is being denied to ukraine so this nato expansionism is not about ideology it's about politics finland and sweden are rich countries with strong armies so they get to walk in smooth and swift ukraine is neither so they get ignored nato's only objective was to use ukraine as a pawn a tool to provoke and agitate russia and this is not happening for the first time in many ways history is repeating itself back in 1997 nato leaders held a summit in madrid that summit admitted three new members hungary poland the czech republic the 1997 summit kicked off nato's problematic wave of expansions next month there is another nato summit guess where the same place madrid if things move fast sweden and finland could get nominal approval at this summit and so it continues a needless clash of inflated egos a nato obsessed with expansion and a russia responding with brutal violence vion is now available in your country download the app now and get all the news on the move
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