moving on now international relations and security analyst mark sloboda is joining us live from moscow thank you so much for joining us having me what can you tell us about the situation on ground in moscow how do you assess president putin's military operation in ukraine what is the mood like currently on ground okay well uh so the russian president launched a uh military intervention in ukraine uh to protect the people of the donetsk and lugans republics which were still under assault uh from the forces of the u.s backed regime in kiev um the mood on the ground here in moscow well life is is going on pretty much as normal i think there's a great deal of support for russian troops uh and a great deal of um uh both um glad tidings and concern a lot of people have family here in eastern ukraine a lot of which has been under assault for the last eight years um and i think that they're breathing a sigh of relief uh that the military forces that were uh shelling the cities uh in eastern ukraine are being pushed back all right now we know the west has time again reiterated support and solidarity with the ukraine however sanctions and diplomacy as you know have failed to yield any results what are the next steps that we can expect from united states and the western allies um i i expect a lot of really hypocritical heated rhetoric i mean particularly coming from the united states that is still merely militarily occupying east syria uh and and iraq against the wishes of of that country's uh own parliament um but um i i think that uh you will see movements u.s and other nato country military forces to the eastern borders of nato where they will sit there and glare across the border and enjoy a european vacation um i think you will see a very extensive round of uh further u.s sanctions russia has already endured some last some some over 100 packages of us and european sanctions uh over the last few years um um i don't think these sanctions will have any real traumatic effect on the russian economy um you know the us's economic warfare has had only limited damage for for so many years at this point uh russia unfortunately for the united states and europe provides so many valuable commodities energy wheat uh you know that are so crucial not only to europe but to global markets that anything that would seriously affect the russian economy would probably bring the entire world's economy down with it right now ukraine's air defenses asper reports are under threat and there have been multiple reports of explosion some seven casualties have been reported so far this after russia claimed that the citizens of ukraine were not under threat what do you make of this yeah i mean the the russian government's uh here uh concern is not the people of ukraine they're not at war with the people of ukraine they're at war with the u.s backed regime that ceased power in kiev in 2014 and has continued a military campaign of subjugation against its own people in the east for the last eight years uh that said this will be an extensive military campaign uh in the words of the russian uh president to demilitarize and denazify uh ukraine um and uh there will be collateral damage as as in any major uh military conducting a campaign of of this size um there will unfortunately be collateral damage uh but right as of this moment the russian military is using precision types actually the words i have is that the the ukrainian uh the kia regime's air defense have been completely destroyed and neutralized at this point and russia has uh air superiority uh over the country they're making uh targeted uh caliber cruise missiles uh ballistic missile and um uh drone strikes um against um kev regime's command and control uh air defense um and uh means to strike back their own antiquated missile units and air forces at this point all right but also there are questions about russia's objectives here what are what can we expect going forward what do you think are the next steps um well i i think that um this campaign will not be limited uh uh simply to you know kind of uh strikes uh against the kiev regime's military forces i think that we're already seeing uh reports uh of russian uh and uh dynastic and lugansk and even bella russian military forces moving around uh such cities in eastern ukraine as harsson mariopol and uh there are reports of russian and bella russian who lay down their arms um and uh you know stop supporting the regime that seized power in kiev in 2014 uh and uh you know uh basically a few minutes ago what can you tell us of the broader implications of this yeah i mean there's definitely going to be large amounts of people moving around refugees i mean from from just 2014 to 2015 when the kiev regime began its military campaign in east ukraine there were some up to two million ukrainians who fled for safety into russia and in the last few days with the increase in kiev regime artillery shelling of uh donetsk and lugan's republics in east ukraine you have also seen uh at least a hundred thousand ukrainians flee further into russia before russia uh finally uh took some action uh to to to end that threat to their lives there but likewise you will see large amounts of of people in the rest of ukraine uh leaving areas with high military uh concentrations leaving cities and you know uh people that supported uh this regime in kiev you will see large numbers of them uh flee either to west ukraine or beyond to poland uh romania uh possibly uh hungary uh you will see uh influx of of of people fleeing the conflict zone right also circling back to a point made earlier now a united states has promised further consequences could you just break that down for us yeah um the us has long been conducting an economic war uh against russia i mean they they've sanctioned their own allies and countries just for doing war with russia that that that will continue in fact even india came under threat of sanctions simply for buying russian air defense systems um uh although that has largely been quieted and and put aside so that the us didn't strain relations uh further with india um but um i i think you'll see moves to try to uh isolate russian banks there will there will not uh you know from transacting in the dollar major russian banks i don't think that you will see russia cut off from swift uh the europeans have kind of vetoed that idea because they would then have no ability to pay for their own energy which they will still need from russia but i think that one of the big us's big plans is to try to cut russia off from the uh global semiconductor market and they've been pushing some of their allies in asia towards that goal right also just for more clarity on this you made a point earlier it said that sanctions by the west do not seem to have a very tragic impact on russia now what compels you to say that well i mean the us's own reports the u.s treasury reports um you know uh for several years now have reported uh economic damage of about one percent uh to the russian uh gdp um and in fact uh russian sanctions on russian russia counter sanctions have actually resulted in the dramatic growth of several sectors of the russian economy particularly the agricultural and manufacturing industries uh when russia was forced for import substitution and to provide uh you know their own products that actually led to a huge growth in the russian agricultural sector when it comes down to it the us actually has very little economic leverage with russia it actually imports far more from russia there's a very high trade imbalance in russia's favor they import far more from russia than than russia uh buys from the united states including things that they can't easily source elsewhere without dramatic effects on their own economy like oil russia is russia is the second largest source of imported oil to the united states after canada and already we are seeing oil prices rise uh over a hundred dollars a priority barrel uh gas prices are also sky high and both of those actually benefit the russian government the russian economy uh so a lot of this academic economic damage will be offset by increases in in the price of commodities that russia sells to the world all right and also how do you see this escalation impacting international order and what can we expect in the hours days to come yeah i i think we've long been seeing a a push uh as a u.s unipolar moment uh fades in the u.s fights to maintain its global hegemony um grade uh against a a uh upsurge of a multi-polar or world uh resisting their their hegemony and and attempts at primacy around the world uh i but that counter reaction is actually pushing the world instead of in a multi-polar direction towards a bipolar direction and we're seeing kind of a new cold war uh emerge uh with with the west solidifying on one side with russia china iran and others on the other and and kind of a new block of neutral countries forming as well uh so i think this is going to have very dramatic effects on on uh the international order but it's only going to be accelerating trends that were already in development all right also just before we wrap up i want to ask you one last questions a question how do you assess the role of the international community we've spoken about the united states but just other allies how do you assess their role in this crisis yeah i think when we talk about the international community that's a favorite buzzword of the united states uh you know referring mostly to the west their their own close allies but the world is not the west the world is a very large community and not all of them are as beholden uh to us foreign policy as the u.s would like it uh certainly there's already been motions uh you know from from the world's largest uh population and economy china uh you know that that are largely providing uh support uh to russia and all this uh and there are a host of other countries uh that have as well in fact the pakistani uh prime minister uh just arrived uh in moscow uh and and uh you know his comments upon landing and get off the plane were kind of giddy that wow to be here during all this excitement uh so uh however much the west might think they could isolate russia they can't speak for the world they are not the international community the international community is extremely varied and a lot of them are very wary about the meddling that the u.s has done in eastern ukraine particularly uh in eastern europe and particularly in ukraine that has set off this whole chain of events since 2014. right all right mr mark zlaboda thank you so much for joining us with all your inputs on this [Music]
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